Portugal (FIFA Ranking 5) v France (2), Wed 23rd June 20:00

Having taken the lead against Germany through Cristiano Ronaldo, it looked as though Portugal were going to storm to six points from their opening two matches, though a defensive disaster-class saw the Germans respond with four goals of their own, leaving Portugal needing to avoid defeat against tournament favourites France, and even that may not guarantee qualification.

The French remain at the top of the betting market to lift the trophy despite putting in a poor performance in a 1-1 draw with Hungary at the weekend, leaving them needing to avoid defeat here to guarantee qualification to the last 16, though even in defeat four points should be enough.

France were expected to set the tournament alight, though an expected finish from Antoine Griezmann and an own goal from Mats Hummels are all they have to their name at the moment, and they’ll need to be far more clinical against this Portugal side and avoid leaving too much space in behind for the likes of Diogo Jota and Ronaldo to exploit. It’s just one defeat in 22 outings now for France, and that was when they played a largely second-string side against Finland in a friendly.

Portugal’s defeat against Germany was only their third since they lost to Uruguay at the World Cup, a run stretching 31 games now, though it’s true that they often struggle against the better sides they face, as proven in their defeat to Die Mannschaft on Saturday. Indeed, they’re just W2-D6-L4 from their 12 matches against elite sides Germany, Spain, France, Italy, Netherlands, Uruguay and Belgium since the beginning of 2018, not winning any since June 2019 so it’s hard to see them mustering up three points from this game.

The last time these two met at the Euros was in the 2016 final, with Portugal running out 1-0 winners to take the trophy. That goal did come deep into extra-time though, and within the confines of 90 minutes, Portugal haven’t actually beaten France since 1975, a run going on 13 matches now, with France winning 10 of those matches, including the most recent back in November last year when N’Golo Kante’s second half strike was enough for the three points. In fact, excluding extra-time and penalties, A Selecao haven’t even scored against Les Bleus since Nuno Gomez slotted a 19th minute opener against them at Euro 2000, with Eder’s 2016 winner and a Ricardo Quaresma penalty the only two strikes they’ve managed in seven meetings since then.

We wouldn’t expect the Euros winners to be as defensively inept as they were against the Germans last time out, and they should be far more difficult to beat for this French side who are yet to really get going. A draw will likely be enough for both teams to qualify, so we can’t see either going hell for leather in the dying stages to earn a win should there be nothing to separate them late in the game, and a draw here looks to hold good value with both sides needing just that.

Draw @ 3.25