Sweden (FIFA Ranking 18) v Poland (21), Wed 23rd June 17:00

Sweden haven’t set the pulses racing but they’ve achieved the desired results as they frustrated Spain on the opening day and battled to a narrow win over Slovakia. In truth, they rode their luck against the group favourites as Alvaro Morata in particular was guilty of leaving his shooting boots at home, but nonetheless, they enter matchday three top of the pile and in a commanding position.

Poland also held Spain to a stalemate as Robert Lewandowski’s equalizer handed them a third draw in four appearances. The Bayern hitman has an enviable record in qualifiers but has struggled on the big stage in national team colours before, failing to score at the 2018 World Cup and registering just one strike from 510 minutes of action at Euro 2016. They’ll need him at his best in this encounter as he’s unlikely to enjoy much service against a well-drilled Swedish defence, while the attacking burden on his shoulders has increased with both Arkadiusz Milik and Krzysztof Piatek absent from the squad through injury.

Sweden are building momentum having now won six of seven unbeaten matches, conceding just the solitary goal across this spell, so Lewandowski is at risk of being isolated here. Admittedly, this sequence included some kind fixtures as they squared off with Georgia, Kosovo, Estonia, Finland and Armenia prior to this tournament. Sweden have actually won all five head to heads with Poland since 1999 as well, shipping a single goal, though given the most recent clash was back in 2004, we wouldn’t pay too much attention to that record.

Poland are still a touch nut to crack, even if they’ve only won once in nine appearances as that came versus minnows Andorra. Three of their four defeats over this period come against quality outfits Italy, Netherlands and England, while the other was inflicted by Slovakia in their opening group game after Grzegorz Krychowiak’s rather harsh second yellow card.

These two sides are separated by just three placed in FIFA’s world rankings and a draw looks likely. For Sweden, a stalemate will be enough to qualify and possibly to even win the group, but while Poland need maximum points, its difficult to see them enjoying too many goal-mouth opportunities. Still, they have found the net in each of their past eight fixtures, with both sides scoring in seven of these, including four score draws. Sweden’s defence appears solid, but five of their past six stalemates have seen both teams on the scoreboard.

Draw @ 3.51
0.25pts: 1-1 Correct Score @ 7.4