Denmark (FIFA Ranking 10) v Finland (54), Sat 12th June 17:00Denmark have only lost three times in 48 appearances over 90 minutes. One of those was a friendly against Slovakia where a second-string took to the field owing to a dispute between the players and the Danish FA, while the other two losses were inflicted by FIFA’s number one ranked side Belgium in the Nations League.
Excluding those clashes with Roberto Martinez’s talent-laden squad, they’ve now won nine of 10 outings, including a win over England and a stalemate with Germany, so it’s no surprise to see them at short odds to claim all three points.
Finland enter the tournament winless in six appearances, losing each of the last three. Most worryingly that includes a defeat to Estonia in their final warm-up friendly, though the good news is that star striker Teemu Pukki looked reasonably sharp in his half hour from the bench as he returned from injury.
The Norwich marksmen fired Finland to their first ever major tournament with 10 goals in qualification. In his last four starts for the national side, he’s bagged five goals as he netted past each of Bulgaria, Wales, Bosnia and Ukraine across Nations League fixtures and World Cup qualifiers.
However, Finland are too reliant upon the 31-year-old for output, while Denmark are not a side that concede too many. Kasper Hjulmand’s side have registered clean sheets in nine of 12 appearances now, as Germany and Belgium were two of the exceptions, while they’ll also benefit from home advantage.
The Danes have shut their opponents out in 15 of their last 19 appearances on home soil, producing win to nil’s in four of their past five there. The Faroe Islands and Moldova were thumped 4-0 and 8-0 respectively, but there were more measured 2-0 victories over both Sweden and Bosnia, as well as a 2-1 triumph over Iceland.
Denmark have scored at least twice in 11 of 16 home games since June 2018, with five of their 12 wins over this period finishing 2-0. Meanwhile, Finland are without a clean sheet in seven appearances, losing to the best sides they faced in Wales (3-1), Switzerland (3-2) and Sweden (2-0). All of those teams are between 13th and 18th in FIFA’s world rankings, while Denmark are a slight step up in quality, ranked at 10th.
Finland are set up to frustrate, while Denmark are similarly built, albeit with a much better chance of thwarting the elite sides, with Christian Erikson at the heart of their attacking play. They can on occasion put a few past a weak side, but typically they’re involved in lower-scoring affairs, and should produce a steady, composed start to the Euros.
Denmark Win To Nil @ 20.5pts: Denmark 2-0 Correct Score @ 6.4