Colombia aren’t as strong of an outfit as they once were, especially when reaching the 2014 World Cup quarter-finals and without James Rodrigues in their squad this time around, they’re certainly a degree weaker. Ecuador are one of the outsiders this year, though in recent additions we’ve regularly seen sides away from the top of the betting market make some deep surges into the knockout stages, notably with Peru reaching the final in 2019 and Ecuador may fancy their chances.

Only Brazil and Argentina are clearer favourites than Colombia, though on recent form it’s difficult to see them going all the way, and their last meeting with this opposition may be cause for concern. Indeed, they’re a very inconsistent W4-D6-L3 going back to their draw with Chile in the last Copa America, while in the World Cup qualifiers they’re just W2-D2-L2 and sit fifth out of 10 with their two victories coming up against the bottom two sides Peru and Venezuela.

Ecuador have been the surprise package in the qualifiers so far and sit third behind Brazil and Argentina with a W3-L3 record, while two of those three defeats came against those top two sides which can be forgiven. La Tri exited at the group stage in 2019 which culminated in a 1-1 draw with Japan, though they’ve been extremely impressive since then going W7-L5, with three of those five defeats coming to either Brazil or Argentina. They’ve got an exciting young team and the telling thing may be their most recent meeting with Colombia ending in a thumping 6-1 victory. All six goals came from different scorers that day and, in fact, nine of their last 12 goals have been scored by different players so they’re certainly not short of firepower.

Colombia have won four of the last five meetings between the two, with the exception being that 6-1 thrashing in November which they’ll be determined to wipe away with a win here, though that may be easier said than done against a side that haven’t been put to the sword too much lately. Indeed, three of Ecuador’s last four defeats going back to November 2019 have come by just a single goal, while the exception came in last week’s 2-0 defeat to Brazil which required a last-minute Neymar penalty to secure.

All that indicates getting Ecuador onside in some capacity, and the handicap looks a good prospect considering that record of keeping games tight. Colombia certainly have some good goal scorers on their hands with Atalanta duo Luis Muriel and Duvan Zapata up top, while five of Ecuador’s last six games have seen over 2.5 goals land at an average of 4.3 goals per game, so an overs bet looks another smart play for us.

Ecuador +1 handicap @ 2
Over 2.5 goals @ 2.3