The switch of host nation to Brazil at the final hour will undoubtedly work massively in their favour, and it’s fair to see why they’ve now moved up to favourites for the competition having won in all five previous renewals that they have hosted.

They’ve won two of their last three opening Copa America matches, including a 3-0 win over Ecuador last time out when they went on to win the title in 2019, and they’ve gone from strength to strength since then too. Indeed, they’ve won 11 of their 12 unbeaten competitive matches (incl. extra-time and penalties) since their World Cup defeat to Belgium, though the only exception came in this competition against Venezuela two years ago. They’ve won all six of their opening matches in the COMNEBOL World Cup Qualifiers, five of which came to nil, with no other teams winning more than three so they’re by far and away the best South American side at the moment.

Venezuela earned themselves a draw with Uruguay this week, though prior to that they had lost four of their five qualifiers and are level on points with bottom side Peru at the moment, so that’s not the kind of form they want heading into this. La Vinotinto have beaten Brazil just once in 26 meetings going back to 1969, with that win coming back in 2008, losing five of eight since and four of the last five. They’ve lost to all of Colombia, Paraguay, Bolivia, and Brazil themselves since October last year, scoring just once in that time.

The main issue for the Venezuelans is their lack of a prolificacy going forward, with none of their attacking players having found the back of the net on the international stage since Darwin Machis netted against Trinidad and Tobago in October 2019. That is a serious issue against a side of this pedigree, and we can’t see anything other than a Brazil win on home soil.

As expected the 1x2 market is far too short to get behind, and although the Brazil win is certainly expected, it may not be as convincing as the prices suggest. Indeed, since they beat Peru 5-0 in the groups stage two years ago, only two of their 15 matches have seen them win by three or more goals, with one coming against Korea republic. Each of their last four matches have finished either 1-0 or 2-0, with that one goal scoreline coming against Venezuela themselves, while Venezuela have kept within a single strike of Brazil in five of the last seven head-to-heads. The Venezuelans have only lost by more than a goal on two of their last 10 games, so the value here has to be behind them on the handicap despite La Canarinho playing on home soil, and the multibet may also appeal.

Venezuela +2.0 Asian Handicap @ 1.93