Brazil v Peru

Hosts Brazil are overwhelming favourites to reach the final and few could argue with that assessment having already thumped Peru 4-0 in the group stages. Tite’s men have won 11 of 12 unbeaten matches after surviving a slight scare last time out, winning 1-0 against Chile as they played almost half the match with 10 men, having dominated proceedings up until Gabriel Jesus’ early bath. Even the one draw over this period came in their final group game, where star man Neymar was given the night off along with a number of regular starters.

Peru’s form has picked up since that meeting in the group stage, managing narrow wins over Colombia and Venezuela, while drawing with Ecuador and Paraguay. Still, that will hardly strike fear into Brazilian hearts and Peru are only W4-D4-L9 over their last 17 games. More disturbingly, it’s noticeable how they’ve really struggled when travelling to the five South American sides inside the top 20 of FIFA’s world rankings.

Against Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Colombia and Chile, they’ve lost 16 of 18 away matches since 2011, conceding at least twice in 14 of those defeats and three or more in nine of them. 12 of those losses came by a two-goal margin or greater, while they’ve failed to score in eight of 11 such encounters since October 2015.

Across all venues, Brazil have still dominated the head to heads, winning eight of 10 since 2009, as the victories have been more convincing in the most recent meetings. They’ve won five of the last six with the exception in a friendly, as each of those triumphs came by at least two clear goals. Having scored at least three times in all four competitive meetings since 2019, averaging four per game, it would be a real surprise if they couldn’t net twice at a minimum here.

In fact, Peru have registered a single clean sheet in 14 appearances now since October 2019, shipping at least two goals in eight of 11 since October 2020. Over the past three editions of the Copa America, five of six semi-finals have seen the sides separated by at least two clear goals, and Brazil look comfortable to cover the handicap.

The Selecao have only suffered a solitary defeat in 34 competitive matches now (W27-D6-L1), with their World Cup exit to Belgium the only blemish on their record since September 2016. On home turf alone they’ve won 19 of 23 unbeaten competitive games since 2015, with 15 of them by a minimum two-goal margin, conceding just three goals across the last 19 on their own patch. Throwing friendlies into the mix, it’s 24 victories from 28 unbeaten games over this spell, so it’s hard to see much hope for their opponents in Rio de Janeiro.

0.5pts: Brazil -1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.89