Uruguay v Paraguay

With four of five teams advancing from each group, both these sides are through to the knockouts as expected, with Bolivia still pointless ahead of the final fixtures. However, it’s not as if there’s nothing to play for, as a top-two finish will place them in the opposite half of the draw to tournament favourites and hosts Brazil.

Paraguay are currently in pole position to land second place behind Argentina, who should expect to win their final group game against Bolivia. Given Chile have played all of their fixtures, a point will suffice and it’s Uruguay that must show the initiative. However, a stalemate would still see Oscar Tabarez’s men move up to third, thus avoiding a first knockout game with Brazil and instead setting up a date with Peru, and a draw would come as no surprise when considering the approach of the two sides either.

Paraguay have only lost twice in 12 matches now (W4-D6-L2), as those were inflicted by South American heavyweights Brazil (2-0) and Argentina (1-0). Neither were humiliations, and so we’d expect this encounter to be a similarly low-scoring affair. Indeed, 14 of Paraguay’s past 18 appearances have seen fewer than three goals, though they’ve still found the net in eight of the last 12.

Uruguay’s 2-0 win over Bolivia last time out was just the second time they’d won by more than a single strike in 18 matches going back two years. Veteran duo Diego Godin and Jose Gimenez continue to hold the fort at the back, while similarly, star men Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani are still the go to guys for goals. In fact, beyond an own goal by Bolivia’s Jairo Quinteros, Cavani and Suarez have one each at this tournament, as they’ve accounted for nine of Uruguay’s past 12 goals.

The supply to those two might not be the greatest as Uruguay are generally focused on defensive resolve, scoring just three times across their last six matches. As a result, they won just one of these recent outings (W1-D3-L2) as all of them saw fewer than three goals. However, with under 2.5 goals at short odds, the draw appears to hold greater value.

Four of the last six meetings between the two sides have gone that way, with Uruguay winning the other two. However, with some ageing players and a knockout place assured, Tabrez may consider resting one or two players and that should even up the contest even more. Uruguay have greater depth than Paraguay and can maintain their standards with some rotation, though it may hamper their chances of overhauling Paraguay into second place.

Draw @ 3