Wales (FIFA Ranking 17) v Denmark (10), Sat 26th June 17:00

A huge win for Denmark saw them leapfrog Russia and take second place in the group, despite that win bringing them their only points in the competition so far. They’ll now face runners-up in group A Wales, who by all accounts have impressed in just their third ever major tournament, and they’ll be thankful to have avoided one of the pre-tournament favourites in their last-16 clash.

The Welsh have proven to be an extremely difficult side to beat in recent years, losing just four of their last 22 matches, and with each of those defeats coming to top sides Italy, France, Belgium and England, Denmark have a real task on their hands. It’s safe to say that Wales don’t tend to see a lot of goals across their matches, as excluding those four games against elite sides, they’ve seen an average of 1.35 goals per game going back to September 2019, with 16 of those 17 games seeing the ‘Under 2.5 Goals’ land, and this is certainly going to be another hard-fought contest.

Denmark had a torrid time at the start of this tournament, with the unfortunate circumstances of Christian Eriksen’s withdrawal followed by defeats to Finland and Belgium to leave them rock bottom of the group with just one game to go, though an emphatic victory over Russia means they’ve now lost just four of their last 31 fixtures, with three of those defeats coming to world number one side Belgium. They’ve won 15 times since they last beat Wales back in November 2018, with 12 of those wins coming by a minimum of two clear goals, while excluding the elite sides they’ve played since June 2019 (England, Belgium and Germany) they’re a strong W14-D2-L1, winning nine of their last 10 such matches.

The Danes will obviously be missing the creativity of Chrisitan Eriksen in that attacking midfield role, though a change of system to three at the back looked to be working wonders against Belgium before the brilliant Kevin De Bruyne stepped onto the field, and it certainly reaped the rewards against Russia on Monday night.

That’s enough for us to get behind Kasper Hjulmand’s side on this occasion, and while when they win, they tend to win big, we’re inclined to ignore the -1 handicap on this occasion with how difficult Wales can be to break down, and it’s instead the multi-bet that offers the best value here in what promises to be a game of extremely fine margins.

Multiscore: Denmark win 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 @ 2.5