Italy (FIFA Ranking 7) v Spain (6), Tue 6th July 20:00These two last encountered each other in World Cup qualifying as Spain took four points, with Italy ultimately failing to qualify as they missed out in the play-offs to Sweden. However, it’s the Azzurri that are in the ascendency now and have impressed throughout the summer, and deserve their billing as favourites ahead of this clash.
Roberto Mancini has led them to a 32-game unbeaten streak, winning 26 of them over 90 minutes, including 12 of the past 13 as the exception came when Austria took them to extra time. Most recently they passed the biggest test in their path, edging Belgium 2-1, with the scoreline a fair reflection of the action.
Although netting more goals under Mancini, the most daunting aspect of facing the Italians remains the same, with their ability to shut teams out very much intact. There have been 24 clean sheets across their unbeaten run over 90 minutes in total, including 12 from the past 13 outings, which could well spell bad news for their opponents here.
Spain have been less impressive in their route to the semi-finals, requiring extra time against Croatia and then penalties to see off a 10-man Swiss side. Although they’ve scored a combined 11 goals across 300 minutes of action in their past three matches, strikers Alvaro Morata and Gerard Moreno have come in for plenty of criticism as they continue to squander chances, and the Italians are unlikely to offer them so many opportunities.
Luis Enrique’s main preoccupation will be to install some much-needed confidence into his misfiring forwards, though he may have to make do without Pablo Sarabia. The winger bagged two goals and two assists across Spain’s fixtures with Slovakia and Croatia, but was taken off at half time against Switzerland, as it remains to be seen if that withdrawal was just precautionary or not.
Mancini only has one real concern after marauding full-back Leonardo Spinazzola ruptured his Achilles tendon. Although it should weaken his team’s ability going forwards down that left flank, they should still remain as solid defensively with Emerson set to replace him in the line-up.
Sain will be no pushovers, having only lost once in 29 appearances (W16-D12-L1 over 90 minutes). However, the last 14 have only yielded five victories, with eight of the last 13 ending in stalemates after normal time – including four of the last five. In fact, against teams currently 21st or better according to FIFA’s world rankings, La Roja have drawn 10 of 12 outings since October 2019, with 10 of these matches also featuring a maximum of two goals.
Still, only two of those 12 games saw Spain take on a top-10 outfit, both of which were against a Portuguese side that have a strong trend for drawing matches against other elite sides. Only one of the six Euro semi-finals since 2008 has ended in a stalemate, though this should be a tight encounter nonetheless, with only three of 10 World Cup or Euro semi-finals since 2010 featuring more than two goals.
Having conceded just twice in over 1000 minutes now, Italy appear to hold the advantage and should navigate their way past Spain. Enrique’s men won’t have an easy time fashioning chances and are failing to convince they’ll take them when they come, while they’ve hardly inspired confidence at the other end either with their only clean sheet from their past four outings coming against Slovakia. An Italian side that could have had three goals against Belgium had Leonardo Bonucci’s early effort not been ruled out for an offside infringement will fancy their chances.
Italy Draw No Bet @ 1.73Italy To Qualify @ 1.81