Italy (FIFA Ranking 5) v Wales (12), Sun 20/06/21, 17:00Italy became the first team to qualify for the knockouts with their 3-0 win over Switzerland, coming off the back of another 3-0 dismantling of Turkey as Roberto Mancini’s outfit have impressed so far. The Azzurri had never scored three times at the Euros before this edition, with the only blemish on their campaign to date a suspected hamstring injury to captain Giorgio Chiellini.
The 36-year-old won’t be risked here with Italy only needing a point to top Group A, and any potential rotation will be welcome news from a Welsh perspective. However, Italy will be keen to ensure top spot and thus a favourable knockout tie, as well as building momentum, so there’s unlikely to be any wholesale changes.
The Dragons have also enjoyed a fruitful summer so far, following up a solid draw against Switzerland with a hugely impressive 2-0 success over Turkey. That most recent performance was the best Wales have delivered since their improbable run to the semi-finals five years ago, and the scoreline could easily have been much more emphatic if they’d taken a few more of the many chances they fashioned.
Wales have only lost three times in 21 appearances since September 2019 now, though it’s noticeable these defeats did come against the best sides they’ve faced over this period in England, Belgium and France. They conceded exactly three times on each occasion and netted just once across the three outings, and we doubt the Italian backline will offer up too many goalscoring opportunities either.
Mancini’s side are now unbeaten in 29 appearances, winning 23 of the last 26, which includes win to nil successes in each of the past 10 as they’ve racked up 31 goals. An Italian clean sheet appears a likely prospect then, though we wouldn’t be so confident that they’ll maintain such a high level of output.
Wales are typically involved in a lot of low-scoring affairs with 16 of their past 20 matches featuring fewer than three goals. However, given they have conceded more against elite sides, in combination with the Italian’s recent goalscoring exploits, the win to nil appeals much more than backing Italy and under 3.5 goals. Indeed, Italy’s goalkeeper Gianluigi Donnarumma made his debut as a 17-year-old and despite now being 22, he’s yet to concede more than once in a single game.
Italy Win To Nil @ 2.35